Thursday, March 21, 2013

COMING CRISIS ALERT: Possible conflict on the Korean peninsula, Alert Reinstated -- March 21, 2013

UPDATE: MAY 3, 2013

All has gone quiet on the Korean peninsula despite developments, and all seems headed towards a political, rather than a military settlement.

Should this change, we will reinstate the alert.

UPDATE: APRIL 27, 2013

Recent activities in North Korea, China and the region have prompted us to reinstate the alert:

-- South Korea has withdrawn high level staff from the Kaesong industrial complex, with the next step being total closure as companies fail to fill their orders and are forced to withdraw.

-- North Korea has been spotted constructing anti-tank traps along the DMZ, an activity considered "highly unusual" by observers, suggesting concern over either conflict or retaliation.

-- China continues to mobilize soldiers, tanks and aircraft along the Yalu River with North Korea, and communications in the area are now censored and suppressed.

-- North Korea has been conducting aerial exercises with paratroopers and tactical bomber fleets, and has been undertaking a record number of flights despite supposed fuel shortages.

-- A week ago, a North Korean defector, undertaking work on the Western islands (where the bombardment took place), stole a vessel and was able to escape authorities and return to North Korea, and was most likely a spy scouting the region for purposes unknown.

-- North Korea currently has 11 medium rocket launchers poised for use on the Eastern Coast, whose purposes are yet undetermined.

-- There are rumours circulating that Kim Jong Un may be losing control of his military apparatus, although it remains difficult to verify this information.

-- The media, in general, has suddenly gone quiet on this entire story, apparently due to the discontinuation of threats on the part of the North Korean government, although all signs in the area suggest little has changed in the march towards belligerence.

UPDATE: April 15, 2013

Due to events transpiring in the United States regarding the Boston Marathon explosion, and due to a lack of activity in North Korea, we will be lifting this alert for the time being to cover other events.

UPDATE: April 15, 2013

North Korea currently celebrates the grand father's birthday anniversary. Tensions have deescalated significantly, the culmination of which will likely end in a missile test at most. The alert has been deescalated as a result of this analysis.

UPDATE: April 9, 2013.

Chinese troops continue to conduct live fire exercises on border with North Korea. North Korea has asked foreigners in South Korea to leave due to "the possibility of war", and is also slating a missile test for April 10th. Japan has prepared patriot missile batteries around Tokyo to defend against any possible missile strike.

UPDATE: April 4, 2013

Chinese troops continue to mobilize. North Korea has apparently issued orders for the nuclear strike "go ahead", although it remains to be seen if this statement extends beyond propaganda to frighten. The US has also dispatched a second vessel to the area, and is also sending material to bolster defenses on Guam.

UPDATE: April 1, 2013

EXTREME ALERT CAUTIONED: CHINESE TROOPS UNDER MOBILIZATION AND HEADING FOR NORTH KOREAN BORDER. INFORMATION IN COMING, PLEASE STAND BY AS WE VERIFY REPORTS AND LEARN MORE ABOUT THE SITUATION. 

(This now provides a foundation as to why the United States is sending so much hardware to North Korea, especially if the PLA mobilization has been taking place since mid-March without much of the world knowing.)

UPDATE: March 28, 2013

Military movement spotted in North Korea. Provocation may be imminent. Stand by.

UPDATE: March 27, 2013

North Korea continues to issue threats, and has cut its military hotlines with South Korea. No military actions have yet taken place. Uncharacteristic of North Korea, Kim Jong Un's whereabouts have been reported in real time for the last month while conducting a flurry of on site military inspections, and practice jet fighter runs have occurred at an unprecedented pace. Mostly unreported by the news, China is also presently conducting military exercises adjacent to the Yellow Sea.

The Coming Crisis, through its military sources, has come across information that North Korea has begun preparing its population for a possible airstrike response from the United States / South Korea. This preparation involves a response against a North Korean strike on the South that may presently be in the works.

The scale and handling of this preparation is unprecedented, to the point where even North Korean defectors are expressing concern and fear over what may transpire out of these precautionary acts. We will keep a close eye on the situation and update as necessary, or lift the alert if we feel the North will not, in fact launch an attack.

Right now, however, if we were to venture a guess based on available information, we would predict a North Korean provocation in the coming weeks, although the scale of such a provocation remains unknown. Stay tuned.
 

EMERGENCY INSTRUCTIONS:

1.  If you are currently a resident in South Korea or Japan, consider stocking up with a week's supply of food, water and medicine. While the situation may not escalate, disruption could affect retail logistics.

2.  Be sure to keep abreast of news and the situation. The Coming Crisis will continue monitoring the situation as closely as possible.

3.  If you live in the Seoul area, be sure you are familiar with emergency evacuation procedures, safety zones, and municipal policies regarding war time.